In Summary:
- Strong retail performance: September’s sector-wide rise in consumer spending signals a positive shift in consumer confidence.
- Macroeconomic boosters: Recent finance announcements strengthen financial security and spending power - potentially amplifying past Q3 spending trends.
- Grocery: Consumer wellbeing continues to drive decisions with Vitality’s partner switch positioning Checkers as stronger than ever.
- Apparel: “More pocket, same mindset”, with value-for-money brands emerging as clear winners in the clothing sector.
September Sector-wide Wins
September 2024 has been a strong month for South African retail, with most sectors experiencing YoY spending growth. When compared to past year’s results however, we see a steep increase in August to September spending.
We dive into the macro factors influencing consumer spending below.
Growth in Spend per Category
SA Optimism on the Rise
News of the South African Reserve Bank initiating its monetary easing cycle with a 25 basis point cut in September has eased the debt burden on consumers and increased their disposable income. This, paired with a three-year low in inflation and September marking the fourth month of consecutive fuel price cuts - has added to the general air of economic optimism in the country.
Other factors, including the strengthening of the Rand against international currencies, has reduced import costs - with the potential to decrease retail prices. Although the effects of this haven’t been seen in the apparel sector yet, the stronger rand has already boosted pharmaceuticals and tech hardware imports.
The new two-pot system however, may have the largest immediate impact on consumer spending. The government has reported that withdrawals have already reached R21 billion, with analysts highlighting that 24% of this has been spent on home and vehicle expenses and a further 11% designated toward day-to-day expenses.
In fact, the Reserve Bank estimates the two-pot system could add 0.1% and 0.3% to GDP growth for the country in 2024 and 2025. A massive boost to SA consumers' pockets, with the potential for an additional R2.3 billion per month in the near future.
Overall, positive economic indicators are boosting consumer confidence and our data suggests these factors have likely boosted retail spending.
📈 Want to see which retailers actually benefited from the September retail boost — and what Checkers, Woolworths, and Pep are doing right?
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